RESEARCH NOTE · RN-06
The Marketplace Substitution Test
Marketplaces are shifting the invoice, not the distributor.
Paul Cunningham, Managing Director
ACE lens: Analytics, where should we play? (Value Proposition, Diamonds, and Community, Clubs) · Maturity Level 3, route-to-market design
Omdia says hyperscaler marketplaces sold $30bn of third-party software in 2024 and will sell $163bn by 2030.
The filings on both sides of that claim show something of interest: where marketplaces have grown fastest, distributor concentration has fallen and partner dependence has risen. The marketplace substitutes for the transaction. The partner and the distributor are being re-routed through it, not around it.
Research Note · RN-06 · October 2026
01
Where marketplaces grew fastest, distributor concentration fell and partner share rose.
Palo Alto Networks passed $2bn of cumulative Google Cloud Marketplace sales while its largest distributor’s share fell from 33% to 19%, and it still reports “substantially all” revenue through partners.
02
The distributors’ software volumes are growing, not shrinking.
TD Synnex’s netted software and cloud revenue rose from $18.3bn to $26.9bn in three years. That one line is roughly 90% of Omdia’s entire $30bn marketplace market for 2024.
03
The partner share of marketplace sales is rising, and the distributors are inside it.
Over a third of AWS Marketplace transactions ran through channel private offers in 2024. The marketplace is becoming a distribution transaction with a hyperscaler’s invoice on it.
Research reviewed
Omdia marketplace forecast (Oct 2025) and distribution report (Jun 2025); Canalys (Aug 2024); 10-Ks/20-Fs of twenty-two vendors, FY2021–FY2025; five distributors’ disclosures.
Bottom line
The disintermediation thesis fails the filings test. Where an established distribution tier exists, its volumes are rising and its role is moving inside the marketplace transaction.
Download now
Enter your details and the PDF download link will be sent to your inbox.
We will only use your details to send you Blue Barn research. No lists, no sales calls.
Want to talk through what this means for your programme?
Book a 30 minute slot with Paul